Investing Strategically During Downturns
A Harvard Business Review analysis of midsize companies during recessions found that those who increased investment during the downturn came out stronger.
Joseph Loria
6/4/20251 min read


Most midsize companies default to defense in a downturn. ⤵️
Cut budgets. Pause investments. Lay off staff. 🤕
But the data says that may be exactly the wrong move. ⛔
A Harvard Business Review analysis of midsize companies during recessions (link in the comments) found that those who increased investment during the downturn came out stronger, outperforming peers in return on equity, sales growth, and market value during the recovery. 💪
Why?
Because recessions don’t last forever. 📉
And the best time to reposition, upgrade, and outmaneuver competitors is before the rebound. 📈
This same applies during times of softness or uncertainty. 🤔
Furthermore, if you're going to invest, do it where the return is predictable, probable, and profitable: your existing customers. 👍
It’s cheaper to grow existing customers than acquire new ones 💲
Expansion sales are more likely to close ✅️
And they’re more profitable, with low or no CAC. 💰
That means you can grow without overextending budget or burning more cash, giving you leverage and clarity instead of volatility and guesswork as to where to invest even further, or even where to strategically trim. ➡️
Customer-focused strategies can maximize the revenue from the base you already have, and turn retention into a powerfully focused growth engine. ⚡
The companies that will win the next cycle aren’t waiting for stability. ⏳
They’re making smart moves now, starting with their customers. 💡
Companies that win downturns don’t guess. They measure, listen, and act, starting with what’s already working in the customers they have.